Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s referendum, Poland’s election, Turkey & MSCI Russia’s government has been pulling out the stops to increase turnout in the vote on constitutional amendments to allow President Putin to rule until 2036, but details on the government’s medium-term... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic activity recovers strongly in May and June Lockdown measures dealt a heavy blow to economies across the region in April, but the latest data offer encouraging signs that activity has recovered quickly over the past couple of months. Economic... 23rd June 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish activity data for May show that activity in the retail sector bounced back more quickly than in the industrial sector as lockdown measures were lifted. Even so, the figures support our... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP eyes weaker zloty, Erdogan tightens economic grip Comments from Poland’s central bank this week highlighting the risk that a stronger currency would hold back the economic recovery suggests that policymakers view the exchange rate as a tool that has... 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates to a record low, more easing to come Russia’s central bank (CBR) didn’t disappoint at today’s meeting, cutting the key policy rate by 100bp to a new post-Soviet low of 4.50%. With disinflationary forces proving stronger than expected and... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More evidence of uneven recovery While the incoming economic data continue to point to a nascent recovery in aggregate EM activity, some countries are being left behind. Recent figures from parts of Asia (China, Korea, Vietnam and... 19th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four charts on the downturn and economic recovery The effects of lockdowns have been felt unevenly across the region, with Romania and Turkey suffering among the largest falls in both retail sales and industrial production, while activity in Latvia... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Long-term scarring, auto production, CEE inflation Recent labour market developments offer early signs that employment protection schemes in place in Central Europe have contained the hit to the labour market. This should allow activity to recover... 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal package, Ukrainians leaving Poland The three-step stimulus plan unveiled this week by Russia’s government comes late in the day. But it does suggest that policymakers are serious about the shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
