Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat rises, Romania’s government falls The threat of sanctions against Turkey is growing and, given the context of the country’s large external debts, the fallout for local financial markets could prove to be more severe than that the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s CHF-mortgage loans & Turkey’s growth plan The ruling by the European Court of Justice that Polish households can potentially convert their Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans into zloty could result in bank losses, but there probably... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy The more hawkish-than-expected communications from central banks across the region this week suggest that markets should not get carried away with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for September suggest that growth held steady at 4.0% y/y in Q3. But with the industrial surveys deeply negative and signs that... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Cracks showing in Central Europe The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) shrugged off ongoing troubles in the euro-zone economy for most of 2019 but the latest data offer evidence that this now taking a bigger toll... 26th September 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks set to delay tightening further The deterioration in the external environment and willingness of the Hungarian MPC to look through above-target inflation means that monetary conditions are unlikely to change over the next twelve... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banks, Russia’s fiscal stimulus The decision by Turkey’s banking regulator to force banks to reclassify some of their loans as non-performing will raise concerns about the health of loan books, but we think that there are bigger... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage plans, ECB stimulus The sharp increases in the minimum wage proposed by Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party have grabbed the headlines and raised concerns about the inflation outlook. But we doubt these measures will... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies will continue to struggle We doubt that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies will be able to regain any of the ground they have lost against the euro over the next year or so. The Hungarian forint is likely to be the... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine optimism overdone, robust growth in CEE Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky has hit the ground running in his bid to push key reforms through the Rada. Markets have taken these developments, as well as the strong Q2 GDP figures... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
