Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q3 GDP figures, the fall of the wall The Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Russia’s economy struggled while Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up well. However, weakness in the euro-zone means we doubt that this... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nord Stream 2, Turkish inflation, Romania’s budget The Danish government’s decision to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline this week is widely seen as a victory for Russia, who could potentially halt energy supplies to Ukraine. But with the... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak Russian and Czech manufacturing PMIs for October provide reason to expect the country’s industrial sectors to continue to struggle. Meanwhile, even though the Turkish PMI fell last month, it... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for October provided firmer evidence that weakness in manufacturing sectors in Central and Eastern Europe is now spreading to consumer... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Tepid recovery on the horizon Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rate cuts fuel rally in Russian & Turkish bonds Large interest rate cuts and dovish comments from central banks in Russia and Turkey this month drove rallies in both countries’ local currency bond markets. The yields on sovereign 10-year local... 29th October 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Doves in flight, Turkey-West relations fracturing The raft of interest rate cuts and dovish noises out of central banks this week support our view that monetary policy will remain loose or be loosened further across most of the region in the near... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2019) After small net inflows in Q2, we estimate that emerging markets (EMs) experienced net outflows in Q3. With the recent detente in the trade war unlikely to continue, further capital outflows are... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM core inflation weakest on record The continued decline in core inflation across many emerging markets supports our view that most central banks’ easing cycles have further to run. Our measure of EM core inflation fell to 2.8% y/y... 18th October 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing a bumpy recovery The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
