Europe Economics Update ECB slows the pace but the journey goes on The ECB’s decision to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.25% was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the Bank is not pausing, and our view that... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Double jeopardy if you bank in Spain Over the past year, Spanish households have seen a bigger increase in their cost of borrowing than those of any other large euro-zone economy, but the increase in the interest paid on deposits has... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Household spending squeeze to continue Policy tightening over the past year has pushed up euro-zone households’ interest costs substantially and is a key explanation for household consumption falling. With interest costs set to rise a lot... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Mar.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell slightly in March and looks set to stay low in the coming months amid evidence that hiring intentions have increased. Even if the labour market softens further... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (April) The fact that core HICP inflation edged down in April will not resolve the debate between a 25bp and 50bp hike for the ECB this week – particularly as the core rate is still close to its all-time high... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Credit conditions continue to tighten March’s money and credit data, as well as the Bank Lending Survey carried out in March and April, show no clear signs that the recent troubles in the US and Swiss banking sectors have had an impact on... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnant; new fiscal rules some way off Data released on Friday confirmed that the euro-zone economy was broadly stagnant in Q4 and Q1. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s proposed new fiscal rules will need further changes before member... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily The euro’s rebound against the US dollar looks stretched to us We think the euro’s rebound over the past six months or so has largely run its course and expect the EUR/USD rate to fall back towards parity before year-end. 27th April 2023 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate still on track for 4% peak While it is not a done deal, we think the ECB is most likely to raise its deposit rate by 50bp next week. Economic activity has been more resilient and core inflation higher than the ECB anticipated... 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) The EC’s economic sentiment indicator for April remained consistent with the economy expanding at the beginning of Q2. It also suggests that price pressures (though easing) remain high and that labour... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
