Capital Daily The euro’s rebound against the US dollar looks stretched to us We think the euro’s rebound over the past six months or so has largely run its course and expect the EUR/USD rate to fall back towards parity before year-end. 27th April 2023 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate still on track for 4% peak While it is not a done deal, we think the ECB is most likely to raise its deposit rate by 50bp next week. Economic activity has been more resilient and core inflation higher than the ECB anticipated... 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) The EC’s economic sentiment indicator for April remained consistent with the economy expanding at the beginning of Q2. It also suggests that price pressures (though easing) remain high and that labour... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to slow only gradually Wage growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain above the level compatible with 2% core inflation this year and only gradually return to a more sustainable level thereafter. 27th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has Spain’s economic recovery been weak? Spain’s underperformance since the pandemic can be explained in part by the incomplete recovery in its tourism sector and in part by the sharp fall in real household disposable incomes. That said, we... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong supply to drag on Spanish industrial rents Industrial occupier demand in Spain is set to slow sharply this year and next, as the economy falls into recession. And with both Madrid and Barcelona poised to see a record level of speculative... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The euro-zone inflation outlook and the ECB May meeting 1683036000 What do recent data signal about recession risk in the euro-zone? How high will the ECB take the policy rate to rein in inflation pressure?
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) The news that total borrowing in 2022/23 was £13.2bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted only a month ago provides the Chancellor with more wiggle room to cut taxes and/or... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The Ifo Business Climate Index rose again in April but remained in contractionary territory. This is contrast to the PMIs which point to much stronger economic performance at the start of Q2. 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong start to Q2, 50bp May hike still on the cards The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy started Q2 on a strong footing. With underlying price pressures also still strong, we think a 50bp hike at the ECB meeting in May remains the most... 21st April 2023 · 9 mins read
