Europe Economics Update TLTRO redemptions to reduce banks’ liquidity More than €1trn of TLTROs will be redeemed over the next eighteen months, significantly reducing euro-zone banks’ liquidity and pushing up their funding costs as they adjust their balance sheets... 7th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The outlook for euro-zone services inflation We think that lower commodity prices and improved global supply conditions will bring euro-zone services inflation down from 5% in May to about 3.5% by the middle of next year. Further falls seem... 6th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Household consumption seems to have been subdued at the start of the second quarter as retail sales were unchanged in April. And continued low levels of household confidence suggest that consumption... 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Manufacturing headwinds for German industrial rents Early 2023 data revealed that the German industrial market has slowed considerably following the exuberance of a year ago. And looking ahead the outlook is not much brighter. We were already... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably... 2nd June 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) May’s decline in euro-zone core inflation to a four-month low left it below the published consensus forecast and was driven in part by lower services inflation. While further gradual declines in the... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May along with signs that core price pressures eased echoes the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations continue to improve but remain stretched European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone construction set to weaken We think that the slump in demand for mortgages will more than offset the support from the high backlog of work and result in a sizeable contraction in euro-zone construction output in the coming... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The larger-than-expected fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in May is consistent with our view that the euro-zone will continue to stagnate in the second quarter. Meanwhile, firms’ selling... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending to remain very weak April’s money and credit data suggest that the decline in bank deposits in recent months is due to rising interest rates rather than worries about the banks’ stability. Meanwhile, bank lending... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany leads euro-zone into recession The downward revision to Germany’s first-quarter GDP data means its economy contracted by 0.8ppts during Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, leaving it much smaller than it was before the pandemic. What’s more, the... 26th May 2023 · 11 mins read
