Europe Economics Update Why has euro-zone services inflation stopped falling? The stalling in services disinflation in recent months is largely due to technical factors and one-offs. If services prices continue to increase at their recent pace in month-on-month terms, the year... 22nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Feb. 2024) The flash PMIs for February suggest that the economy is still struggling and that price pressures are, if anything, intensifying. This does not dramatically change the picture for the ECB, but it does... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value... 21st February 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction weakness to resume Euro-zone construction output picked up in December, but remained well below last year’s peak. We expect it to drop again in 2024, in part due to a continued dismal performance by the sector in... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year. 19th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t expect a strong rebound in Germany The German government’s reduction in its forecast for GDP growth from 1.3% to 0.2% brings it closer to our long-held view that the economy will not grow at all this year. But there are growing risks... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2023) Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to continue in the first half of the year. 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stronger supply cuts Madrid office outperformance A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers view patience as a virtue ECB policymakers have continued to push back against the prospect of rate cuts this spring. But they won't feel bound by that guidance if their assessment of the inflation outlook changes. So we still... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 8th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Close to a floor, but investment upturn will be weak Euro-zone investment improved a little in Q4, but that did not prevent it experiencing its worst year in a decade. While we have raised our forecast for through-year growth, we still expect a weak... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The “greedy beast” may be tamed but not slayed Tentative signs of an increase in services press pressures support the view of ECB policymakers who are concerned about the strength of domestic inflation. We still think that the data will support an... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the recent rebound in REIT prices tell us? At face value, the rebound in European equity REIT prices over recent months suggests that capital values could be nearing their trough. But the past relationship is weak and REITs have benefited from... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
