Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals next move likely to be March The Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% today. This marks the seventh step in thetightening cycle which began in June 2005 and keeps rates tidily in line with those of the euro-zone.(See... 13th December 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will close the inflation gap? The last time the headline and core rates of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone diverged as they have over the last two years, it was a sharp rise in core inflation which eventually closed the... 29th November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone labour market about to hit the buffers? Estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment suggest that the euro-zone labour market could be about to hit capacity constraints. But we think that the labour market recovery has plenty further... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals significant further tightening The Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25% today. This marks the sixth step in the tightening cycle which began in August 2005 and keeps rates tidily in line with those of the euro-zone.... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Euro-zone recovery sustainable? If our forecasts of a major slowdown in the US economy prove to be correct, then one crucial issue for the global economy is whether other parts of the world can compensate. With the euro-zone... 26th October 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will higher interest rates hit Ireland? The Irish economy looks likely to be one of the heaviest sufferers from the upward trend in eurozone interest rates. As such, the consensus view that Irish economic growth will barely slow over the... 18th September 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB continues to remove monetary stimulus It came as no surprise at all that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) today raised rates by a further 25bps (bringing the mid-point of its target range for the three month Libor to 1.75%). After all, the... 14th September 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Spain heading for a hard landing? Spain has enjoyed one of the fastest rates of expansion in the euro-zone in recent years, thanks largely to rapid growth in domestic demand and, in particular, household spending. But several factors... 17th August 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB well on the road to ‘normalisation' Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for the 3 month Libor by 25bps to 1.5% came as very little surprise. Like the latest rise in ECB rates, today’s hike... 15th June 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is inflation back from the dead? Recent signs of higher inflation in many advanced economies have prompted the question of whether inflation is back from the dead. Our answer is a qualified “no”. The shift to an era of low inflation... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus World Cup 2006 - a timely kick for Germany? In less than three weeks’ time, the 2006 football World Cup kicks off in Germany. Our analysis suggests that, while the overall effects of the tournament on the German economy are unlikely to be very... 23rd May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The German recovery - not just a one year wonder? While expectations of the performance of the German economy this year have become significantly more optimistic as the various forward-looking indicators have strengthened, most forecasters still... 8th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Commodity prices: current highs are not sustainable Commodity prices are now unsustainably high. We expect supply to continue to rise rapidly, since rising prices have greatly increased producers’ profitability. Mineral reserves are more than adequate... 5th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italian elections: Prodi probably the lesser of two evils Italian voters are facing a choice between two pre-determined coalitions in the general election on 9th-10th April - the centre-left Union coalition under Romano Prodi, currently leading by 3-5% in... 5th April 2006 · 1 min read
