Europe Commercial Property Update Could rising risk aversion take the steam out of commercial property? The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How bad is Belgium’s competitiveness problem? The improvement in southern euro-zone nations’ competitiveness has left some core countries, such as Belgium, lagging behind. If Belgium and other uncompetitive economies are unable to close the... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slip Last week’s rise in peripheral euro-zone bond yields mainly reflected contagion effects from Greece’s sell-off, rather than general fiscal concerns. Indeed, draft 2015 budgets showed most countries... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece trigger another crisis? While there are some comforting distinctions between the recent jump in Greek bond yields and that which triggered the euro-zone crisis back in 2010, the scale of the economic challenges still facing... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update In the euro-zone at least, the markets have got it right While the recent weakness of financial markets appears hard to square with the economic outlook insome parts of the world like the US, in the euro-zone the markets’ concerns appear more justified. 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & Final CPI (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in August reflected a drop in importsrelated to weak domestic demand rather than a rise in exports. It still looks like theeconomy failed to grow in Q3 and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone holding back recovery (again) Global growth is likely to accelerate slightly next year but to remain well below its pre-crisis average. Strong recoveries in the US and UK will be offset by near-stagnation in the eurozone and Japan... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will lower oil prices have on Norway’s property markets? With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal slippage could promote more pragmatic policy The French Government’s submission today of a budget that flouts the European Commission’s fiscal rules will be a key test of EU authorities’ resolve. We expect a compromise to be reached that forces... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Peripheral industrial property values look set to outperform In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Adverse market reaction hits Greek bail-out exit hopes The adverse market reaction to the Greek Government’s plans to exit its IMF bail-out early has underlined the fragility of market sentiment towards the country and presumably made it very unlikely... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Treasury and Bund yields continue to diverge? Although the spread between the yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds is already close to its largest since the start of European Monetary Union, we see little reason why it should not... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) & German ZEW (Oct.) August’s fall in euro-zone industrial production and the sharp drop in German ZEW investor sentiment in October add to the risk that the single currency area may be entering its third recession in six... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can US and euro-zone inflation really diverge? It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the euro-zone drag the UK into the doldrums? Concerns that the euro-zone’s faltering recovery will drag the UK’s own into the doldrums appear somewhat overblown. Past experience shows that the UK economy has been able to outperform the euro-zone... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
