Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January Manufacturing PMIs suggest that regional industry remains in rude health after a very strong end to last year. While there are signs that producers are having some success in tackling large... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s COVID shift, Q1 Outlooks A successful vaccination campaign means that, despite a surge in COVID cases, Korea is sticking with its plans to reopen the economy. This supports our view that Omicron will have only a small impact... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
Emerging Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) While Omicron means that the strong GDP growth recorded in Q4 2021 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, the recovery should be back on track before long. With the economic outlook still upbeat... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korean labour market not as healthy as it looks At face value, the Korean labour market figures for December paint an encouraging picture, with total employment rising to a new record high. However, a detailed examination of data reveals just how... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea turning even more hawkish The Bank of Korea (BoK) is far from done, after making its first back-to-back rate hike since 2007 today. We now expect a total of four 25bp hikes in 2022, taking the policy rate to 2.00%. 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022 Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year. 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A guide to political events in 2022 Korea, the Philippines and India are each holding elections this year that will play a role in setting fiscal and structural reform priorities, including the possible introduction of a universal basic... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Industry momentum strong going into 2022 Manufacturing PMIs and timely trade data reveal that Asia’s export-focussed industry gained momentum at the turn of the year. While the Omicron variant presents a key threat to the outlook, it is... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea facing a policy dilemma We expect the Bank of Korea to continue raising interest rates next year, but the worsening near-term prospects for growth mean the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear cut. 6th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update How big a threat is Omicron to Asia? Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Nov.) Korean export values surged to record highs in November helped by temporary factors but also strong underlying growth. Exports should remain elevated for at least the next few months, helped by a... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read