Capital Daily We think that most EM currencies will fall back by year-end Emerging Market (EM) currencies have generally appreciated against the US dollar since the start of this month, and indeed since last October. However, we think that nearly all “major” EM currencies... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policy credibility in Turkey, bleak CEE GDP data The latest developments in Turkey – including the expected appointment of former finance minister Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet – provide encouraging signs that President Erdogan will moderate his... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB kicks off its monetary easing cycle Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut the interest rate on its one-day deposit tender at today’s meeting, from 18% to 17%, and this is likely to be followed by further cuts in the coming months, with the... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE downturns easing, but tepid growth to follow Economies across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have significantly underperformed the euro-zone and the rest of the world in recent quarters, which has its roots in the scale of the inflation shock... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2023) Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were fairly weak on the whole, but Poland’s economy beat expectations and the worst of the regional downturn now appears to have passed. Even so, headwinds... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE rate cuts coming into view, FX rally may not last Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe provided firmer signs this week that, with inflation now declining, monetary loosening may soon be on the cards. But there are still clearly big... 28th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB sets the stage for loosening cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) slashed the upper end of its interest rate corridor today by 450bp, to 20.50% and, while this move alone won’t loosen monetary conditions, it is likely to be followed... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 25th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB shifting to cuts, Turkey bracing for election result The Hungarian central bank (MNB) looks set to take its first steps towards lowering interest rates at its meeting next week by cutting the upper end of its interest rate corridor. Policymakers will... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: current account improvement to continue Large current account deficits across CEE have started to narrow in recent months and we think that this will continue as slowing economies and lower energy prices shrink import bills. This will... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
