Emerging Europe Economics Update E.coli outbreak not the only disinflationary factor Inflation fell sharply in most countries in the region last month, due in large part to a surprise drop in food prices. This appears to have been driven by one-off factors relating to the outbreak of... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Running into external headwinds The economies of Emerging Europe are running into external headwinds. The most obvious of these is the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone, which, despite the fact that Greece looks to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation still driven by food and energy Headline inflation has remained at uncomfortably high levels across the region, at the same time as activity in industrial and service sectors is beginning to wane. This underscores the policy dilemma... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation to slow in 2012, Turkey the exception The spike in inflation that has dominated the headlines in recent months should be short-lived. In most countries, rising inflation has been driven by higher food and energy inflation, which in turn... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update No quick fix to Hungary's FX debt problem Media reports suggest that the Hungarian government is close to unveiling a draft plan aimed at dealing once and for all with the legacy of the FX-debt boom that brought the country’s banking sector... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian interest rates should be down Today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to keep interest rates on hold at 6.00% for the fourth consecutive meeting underlines how inflation fears have slipped down policymakers’ list of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Capital value growth outlook still weak in Budapest and Bucharest Q4’s rebound in all-property capital values in Budapest and Bucharest is unlikely to mark the start of a rapid recovery. Indeed, weak economic growth prospects argue against a near-term recovery in... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow in the second half The recovery in Emerging Europe remains broadly on track. GDP growth rates are likely to prove solid, if not spectacular, in a number of countries over the coming years with Turkey, Poland and, in the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's fiscal reforms: impressive rhetoric but short on detail The long-awaited ‘structural revamp’ of the public finances that was unveiled by Hungary’s government earlier today was big on rhetoric but short on detail. The bottom line is that the government’s... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian and Romanian commercial property markets to lag behind The latest RICS global survey presents a more optimistic outlook for capital value growth in Hungary and Romania than our current forecasts imply. But we think that surveyors may be overstating the... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to look for from Hungary's spending cuts The Hungarian government is due to begin debating a “structural revamp” of the public finances in the coming weeks, which will entail substantial budget cuts. A first reading of the Growth and... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hikes again, but all eyes back on fiscal policy The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) this afternoon voted to hike interest rates by 25bps for the third consecutive month (to 6.00%). The outlook remains highly uncertain, but on balance today’s move... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian risk factors on the rise The recovery in Hungary may have a less solid base than some of the recent news flow might suggest. In any event, the positive economic news needs to be offset against the growing political risks and... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A two speed 2011 2010 has been a year of recovery for Emerging Europe. This process should continue in 2011 but there are at least three important points for investors to bear in mind. First, growth is unlikely to... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
