Emerging Europe Economics Update National Bank of Hungary keeps its options open Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary appears to be keeping all its options open regarding future movements in the policy rate. For what it’s worth, we... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe recovers as Russia struggles The latest activity data show that the recovery in Central Europe that started in the second half of last year gathered pace in Q1. Our GDP trackers suggest that growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary opts for another four more years of Orbanomics Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party swept to victory in yesterday’s parliamentary election in Hungary and, in the very near term, his premiership is likely to come alongside a strengthening economic... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate cuts in Hungary now look unlikely Following the cut in interest rates in Hungary earlier today, the MPC gave the clearest signal yet that the easing cycle has come to an end. Policymakers did not completely close the door on further... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does buoyant Hungarian sentiment imply for property? Buoyant economic sentiment in Hungary may overstate the underlying health of the domestic economy. We would not be surprised if sentiment and GDP growth cooled later this year. Nevertheless... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do elections in Hungary and Turkey hold in store? Ruling parties look set to win handsomely in parliamentary elections in Hungary and local elections in Turkey in the coming weeks. However, while the outcomes may be foregone conclusions, both... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank could still cut interest rates further Having lowered interest rates by a little more than the market expected today, the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting communiqué (unusually) didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data show recovery gathering steam This morning’s raft of flash Q4 GDP estimates from Central and South Eastern Europe was, for the most part, stronger than our above-consensus forecasts and suggests that growth in Emerging Europe as a... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
