Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Manufacturing PMIs for May showed that weaker external demand weighed on export orders in Emerging Europe, and that spillovers from the war in Ukraine hit output. There were some signs of improvement... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet Industrial production in Central Europe performed much better than expected in March given the sharp fall in German production. We still think industry will weaken in Q2 as supply chain disruptions... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB steps up tightening, but NBP opts for a smaller hike Central banks in Czechia and Poland caught investors by surprise today as the Czech central bank (CNB) unexpectedly re-accelerated the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp hike while Poland’s... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2022) The 0.7% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly stronger than expected, although it still marked a slowdown in growth and, in particular, there were signs of weakness at the end of the quarter... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slows tightening, but more on the horizon The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the third consecutive month today with a 50bp rate hike to 5.00%, but hawkish communications after the meeting suggest that... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators unsurprisingly fell in most countries in March amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine and there were further large increases in price pressures on the back of... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
