Abhijit Surya

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2024)

The sharp drop in unemployment in February was likely a blip, rather than a trend. With job vacancies continuing to fall back, we suspect the unemployment rate will rise anew in the months ahead.

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q4 2023)

With the New Zealand economy in a double-dip recession, we’re sticking to our guns that the RBNZ will cut rates more aggressively than most anticipate.

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

The worst may be over for the Australian consumer

National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q4 2023)

Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures

There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade.

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24)

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (February 2024)

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 24)

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Survey data point to resilience in economic activity

Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to...

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2023)

The pickup in wage growth in Q4 was driven by larger pay packets for public-sector employees. By contrast, private-sector wage growth actually fell back and should continue to do so in the coming...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Feb. 24)

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts

Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours...