Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Explaining our forecasts for the Gulf economies We think that GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could fall to around 3.8% in 2012, down from 7.2% last year (and lower than most analysts expect). Admittedly, healthy balance... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Crunch time for Egypt Egypt’s talks this week with the IMF over a $3.2 billion package could prove to be a defining moment in the post-Mubarak era. With FX reserves now at dangerously low levels, external financing is... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Significant downside risks to the UAE's non-oil economy The UAE’s economy minister has suggested that GDP grew by 3.3% last year, only marginally above growth in 2010 and well below most expectations (CE 3.5%; Consensus 4.0%). We think that tight lending... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflationary pressures mounting in Saudi Arabia and Egypt In contrast to other regions, February’s inflation data from Saudi Arabia and Egypt show that price pressures are mounting. In Saudi, strong domestic demand and favourable base effects are largely to... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa’s new parliaments at risk of losing sight of economy A lack of policy direction in North Africa is jeopardising the already-sluggish economic recovery. Unemployment has reached record highs in both Egypt and Tunisia, fiscal and external positions are... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Feb.) PMI data show that activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector slowed last month. Although external demand picked up sharply, this was offset by weaker domestic demand. 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s economy on slow recovery path Dubai’s equities soared by 26% since the beginning of the year on the back of fading concerns that government-related entities (GREs) will struggle to refinance their maturing debt this year and... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack High oil prices to swell Gulf coffers The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC: full political union a non-starter King Abdullah’s plan for a full political union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is unlikely to materialise. Although each country within the GCC is similar both in terms of economic structure... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook 'Arab Spring' puts the focus on near-term divergence It is becoming clear that one year on from the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are facing difficult transitions. Most of these are in... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI data show that activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector accelerated modestly. But the bigger picture is that the slowdown in the pace of growth seen in the second half of last year... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taxation plans in the Gulf are good news, but will take time Given that public finances are vulnerable to swings in oil prices, rumours that Qatar and other Gulf countries are considering Value-Added Tax (VAT) to diversify revenue sources are welcome. Indeed... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
