Africa Economics Update IMF’s new growth forecasts underscore growing vulnerabilities The IMF last week made significant downward revisions to its economic growth forecasts for sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2014-15, leaving them close in line with our own. Indeed, this is another sign... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update The regional implications of Nigeria’s GDP revisions Revisions to measured GDP in Nigeria means the country now has a larger weight in regional GDP, accounting for a third of sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy. Given that Nigeria is likely to... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update GDP revisions push Nigeria to top of the pile in Africa Measured GDP in Nigeria has almost doubled as a result of methodology changes announced this weekend, confirming it as the region’s largest economy and highlighting the significant development of the... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Effects of China’s slowdown to vary across the region Concerns over the impact on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) of a further slowdown in China have resurfaced over the past couple of weeks. While we do not expect China to experience a hard landing, we do... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: modest interest rate hikes on the cards In its first MPC meeting since the suspension of Governor Lamido Sanusi, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today. The case for conventional tightening is building... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble The Zambian kwacha has become the latest African currency to come under fire, and has this month slumped to an all-time low against the US$. This follows similar falls in the Ghanaian cedi and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional vulnerabilities rising, but differentiation is needed Clouds have gathered over the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past few months due to growing concerns over widening twin budget and current account deficits and the effects of a slowdown... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria set to be confirmed as Africa’s largest economy The proposed rebasing and revision of historical Nigerian GDP data, due to be released at the end of this month, are likely to show that the country has overtaken South Africa as the region’s largest... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack EM turbulence spreads to Africa The turmoil in EM financial markets over the past six months has spread to a number of economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), taking some of the gloss off the region’s upbeat growth story in the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EM currency turmoil spreads to Africa The recent turbulence in EM currency markets has spread to some of Africa’s major economies, with the Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira slumping to all-time lows against the US$ this month. The South... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Time to revisit Africa’s growth story? Signs that the recent turbulence in EM markets is spreading to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have caused some to question the region’s upbeat growth story. But while some vulnerabilities are building and a... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Who is next in line to hike interest rates? Following the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hike interest rates last week in response to the recent turmoil in EM financial markets, Ghana looks set to be the next country in the region to... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa tightens policy, others may soon follow suit The South African Reserve Bank responded to the turmoil in EM currency markets by unexpectedly hiking interest rates this month. Rates were raised by 50bp to 5.50% and, looking ahead, we think policy... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand plunges to five-year low The South African rand has slumped to a five-year low over the past couple of days – in the process breaking through our end-year forecast of 11/$, which itself had been at the bottom end of consensus... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN governor fires warning shot over fiscal loosening The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold today but, significantly, Governor Lamido Sanusi struck a notably more hawkish tone than has previously been the case in the accompanying press... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the South African elections The key political event in sub-Saharan Africa this year is the elections for the presidency and national assembly in South Africa. Although it seems likely that Jacob Zuma will be re-elected as... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
