Africa Chart Pack South Africa tightens policy, others may soon follow suit The South African Reserve Bank responded to the turmoil in EM currency markets by unexpectedly hiking interest rates this month. Rates were raised by 50bp to 5.50% and, looking ahead, we think policy... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand plunges to five-year low The South African rand has slumped to a five-year low over the past couple of days – in the process breaking through our end-year forecast of 11/$, which itself had been at the bottom end of consensus... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN governor fires warning shot over fiscal loosening The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold today but, significantly, Governor Lamido Sanusi struck a notably more hawkish tone than has previously been the case in the accompanying press... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the South African elections The key political event in sub-Saharan Africa this year is the elections for the presidency and national assembly in South Africa. Although it seems likely that Jacob Zuma will be re-elected as... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a major threat in 2014 Inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain broadly stable in 2014. Admittedly, the region is more susceptible than other EM regions to food price shocks related to drought. But in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack African markets shrug off Fed tapering Financial markets in Africa appear to have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to taper its monthly asset purchases under QE3 in their stride. Of the region's major economies, Kenyan and Nigerian... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Remittance inflows could take the edge off current account concerns Concerns have been raised about the impact of less accommodative global monetary policy on capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but one factor that often gets overlooked is that of overseas... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand set to weaken further next year The key development in African financial markets over the course of 2013 has been the slump in the South African rand, which has depreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar. But while most of... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus African consumer boom has much further to run Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) consumer market has quadrupled in size since 2000, and is now worth over US$650bn. While some of the tailwinds that have supported consumption over the past decade are... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Capital outflows from Nigeria could become a risk A sizeable current account surplus means that capital outflows from Nigeria are not a cause for concern at the moment. However, a sustained fall in oil prices, as well as the appointment of a more... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks turn more hawkish Interest rates were kept on hold in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana this month, but the more interesting aspect of the announcements was the notably hawkish tone struck by policymakers. In... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies likely to face renewed pressure African currencies have remained broadly stable over the past month or so but, looking ahead, the general trend is likely to be one of weakness against the US dollar over the next year. In particular... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fiscal concerns to prompt rate hikes in Nigeria next year It is fitting that Nigeria’s Budget Proposal for 2014 has been delayed again on a day where the Central Bank has voiced its concerns over fiscal slippage. Low inflation means the Central Bank has... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: non-oil sector continues to drive GDP growth The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3 was driven by an improvement in the non-oil sector, which has been due in part to continued loose fiscal policy. All of this would seem to strengthen the case... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak South African economy not a major threat to rest of region The ongoing weakness of the South African economy has raised questions over the potential impact on the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. In this Watch, we argue that, due to a variety of factors, trade... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Rand respite unlikely to last Like most other major emerging market currencies, the South African rand has rebounded over the past month as markets have adjusted to the prospect of US monetary policy staying looser for longer than... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
