US Economics Update The impact of yet another government shutdown The direct hit to the economy from even an extended government shutdown beginning next week would be modest. But it could also result in delays to key data releases, including the September employment... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth continues on downward trend We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September as employment growth continues to trend lower, but a government shutdown may disrupt the release of the data on Friday 6th October. 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt long-dated USTs will keep underperforming 10Y Treasuries have underperformed 2Y Treasuries over recent months, bucking the usual pattern after the final Fed hike (if, as we think, the final hike was in July). But we think the stage is now set... 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Strong immigration and the resilience of the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada keeping further rate hikes on the table, we still judge... 27th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Total employment growth slowed slightly in August to 0.4% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover, once seasonally-adjusted. But office jobs in western cities have continued to decline as layoffs in the... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The 8.7% m/m drop in New Home Sales in August was the largest monthly decline since September 2022 and suggests that the renewed rise in mortgage rates has caused home purchase demand to decline... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.) The sixth consecutive rise in house prices in July showed that very tight supply is causing home prices to continue to rise despite sales volumes remaining weak, and suggests a second dip in house... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy buckling under weight of high interest rates We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to... 26th September 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall through 2024 - retail to outperform With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the... 25th September 2023 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly “Higher for longer” more likely than another rate hike Given clearer signs of economic weakness in recent weeks, we think the surprise increase in underlying inflation pressures in August means the Bank of Canada is more likely to keep interest rates at... 25th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Why the 10-year Treasury yield could yet fall back significantly Although the 10-year Treasury yield rose further to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~4.5% in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we continue to forecast that it will drop back to 3.75% by the... 22nd September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed at odds with the data The new projections published by the Fed this week signalled that officials are fully onboard with the idea of interest rates staying ‘higher for longer’, but that is based on forecasts for real... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
