US Employment Report Preview Stronger employment growth won’t last While we expect the return of striking workers to help non-farm payrolls rise by a stronger 200,000 in November, underlying labour demand probably eased. 30th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.) On the face of it, the upward revision to second-quarter GDP growth combined with the preliminary estimate of a strong monthly gain in October suggests that the surprisingly large fall in third... 30th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A less hawkish hold The second consecutive month of muted core inflation pressures in October should have further reduced the Bank of Canada’s appetite for another interest rate hike. While markets are now in agreement... 29th November 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Deep divide among homebuilders The usually strong relationship between NAHB homebuilder confidence and housing starts has broken down recently. That can be explained by the composition of the NAHB’s builder members, which are... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Currency markets and the G10 easing cycle With the post-pandemic global monetary tightening cycle now drawing to a close, this Update takes stock of where interest rate expectations in the G10 economies stand and what that implies for the... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2023) Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This... 28th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US Treasury yield curve and relative returns We expect 10-year Treasuries to outperform 2-year Treasuries between now and the end of 2024, even though we forecast the 2-year Treasury yield to fall by more than the 10-year Treasury yield in that... 28th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Oct. 2023) New home sales reversed most of their rise in the previous month as mortgage rates spiked to 8%. However, we don’t think this marks an end to the strength in new homes sales. That’s because the supply... 27th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly FES creates a “clearer path” for Macklem It would be a stretch to say the government showed fiscal restraint in the Fall Economic Statement, but the announcement of only a few billion dollars in extra spending measures means that Finance... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2024 policy outlook 1702566000 A year of the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation is expected to end with the major DM banks leaving rates on hold at their December meetings.
US Economics Weekly Post SVB bank lending holding up well The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
