US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 353,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates why the Fed is apparently in no rush to start cutting interest rates and kills off any remaining chance of a cut as soon as March. Even if... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the latest batch of big tech earnings We expect big tech to drive the S&P 500 higher still in 2024, despite a mixed performance from the shares of most of the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ over the last ten days in the wake of a flurry of... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The solid rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in January, from 47.1, indicates that the downturn in the sector is fading and appears to justify the Fed’s view that it can wait a little... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Powell suggests first rate cut more likely to be May Based on the surprisingly explicit steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through today’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Trump's new tariffs would accelerate global fracturing If he wins this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from... 31st January 2024 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are rents really falling? We think the recent divergence between the BLS measure of apartment rents and other sources is due to reliability issues with the former, which we expect will be revised higher in future releases... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest disinflation will continue The December JOLTS data show a continued painless normalisation in the labour market – with job openings on a downward trend, layoffs unusually low and wage growth set for a sharp slowdown. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023) The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
