US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s consumer prices and industrial production releases had something for everyone at the Fed but, on balance, they leave the central bank on course to slow the pace of its asset purchases at the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The 0.7% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes suggests that GDP growth in May might have been higher than 0.1% m/m. As a result, the risks to our forecast that second-quarter GDP will rise by 1.5%... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Sales losing a bit of momentum The disappointing rise in retail sales values in June increases the chances that GDP grew at an annualised rate of less than 1% in the second quarter. Even more worrying is that sales growth appears... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada should weather China's slowdown Canada should weather China's economic slowdown relatively well, with fairly minor consequences for economic growth. Since China represents a fairly small share of Canada's total exports, any slowdown... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 tapering in September still a good bet We don’t think the balanced discussion that took place at the FOMC meeting in mid-June means that the Fed is less likely to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases sooner rather than later. In... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 83.9 in July, from 84.1, was probably in reaction to the recent sharp decline in stock markets. But since equity prices... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bernanke bashing illustrates limits of “forward guidance” Many of the criticisms of the US Fed’s recent communications on monetary policy are, in our view, unfair. However, the difficulty that the media and markets have found in drawing clear conclusions... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing cost pressures a further boost to homebuilders The 25% fall in lumber prices in the past two months is helping to relieve cost pressures on homebuilders. Combined with surging homebuilder confidence, it looks like housing starts are set to rise... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses faring better The recent improvement in the sentiment among small businesses is an encouraging sign that the overall economy is becoming fundamentally stronger, although changes to taxes and regulations will... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Spike in mortgage rates not derailing recovery The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 3.6% two months ago to 4.7% last week. The effect on remortgaging volumes has been considerable – applications for remortgaging have halved in the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch New Governor may take bold step forward Despite stronger economic data, there are good reasons to expect a more supportive policy statement next week. Although the new Governor Stephen Poloz has said nothing recently that indicates the Bank... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home building unlikely to defy gravity for long The recent condo-surge which propelled housing starts to levels above demographic requirements in the second quarter is not convincing evidence that the housing slowdown is over. More timely... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is this now a “job-full” recovery? The economy has recently been enjoying something of a “job-full” recovery as employment has been rising at a faster rate than GDP. Activity will probably catch up later this year, but in the near-term... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions soften further The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that businesses do not expect any material improvement in future sales growth and, as a result, are scaling back their investment plans. Accordingly... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
