Canada Economics Weekly Low vacancy rates don't mean what you might think The low rental vacancy rate in Canada is often linked to strong immigration growth and presented as a reason why the current strength in new condo sales and multi-unit construction can be sustained in... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in oil price not big enough to pose a threat The recent resurgence in the price of crude oil has led to speculation that, in a repeat of what happened at this time last year, a spike in energy prices could undermine real economic growth just... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) The new homes market is finally benefitting from the recent improvement in housing demand. But with new homes only available at an extremely high premium relative to existing homes, the recovery in... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q4) and payroll employment (Dec.) The 9.0% q/q increase in fourth-quarter corporate operating profits, following two consecutive quarterly declines, is encouraging with respect to growth prospects for business investment and payroll... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The 4.3% m/m rise in existing home sales in January is not quite as encouraging as it first appears given that it comes at the expense of a 5.0% downward revision to the previous month’s figures. The... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December's 0.2% m/m decline in retail sales, which was largely due to weaker auto-related sales, follows several months of strong sales. This decline might be the first sign that this recent strength... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is this recovery the real deal? The advanced economies have started the year strongly, led by the US, but the recovery is not secure. Growth could still be derailed by fiscal policy tightening, ongoing debt deleveraging, further... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mind the output gap trap It is easy to fall into the trap of debating how large or small the output gap is. The simple truth, however, is that no one knows. But while the output gap is not directly observable, the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness in Q4 GDP growth likely to persist Despite more upbeat fourth-quarter net exports, our calculations suggest that softer business investment, particularly inventories, held back fourth-quarter GDP growth. From what we can tell, growth... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January's consumer price data are a mixed bag. Headline inflation fell to a ten-month low of 2.9%, from 3.0%, while core inflation edged up to a three-year high of 2.3%, from 2.2%. Favourable base... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) January's increase in consumer price inflation, to 2.5% from 2.3%, is mostly a reflection of some recent noise in new motor vehicle and electricity prices. Since these prices are also included in the... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery at a crossroads... again The recent improvement in the incoming economic data, particularly in relation to the labour market, has raised hopes that the US economy could shrug off the crisis in the euro-zone and finally enjoy... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US equity risk premium reached a peak? Part of the justification provided in some quarters for the recent rise in the US stock market is that equities are attractively valued relative to bonds. We do not dispute this fact – the equity risk... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the fourth quarter is another positive development for the housing market, but the foreclosure pipeline remains full to bursting. If the robo-signing... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) Despite the relatively strong 1.2% m/m increase in manufacturing volumes in December, we doubt that wholesale and retail trade were anywhere near as strong and suspect that overall monthly GDP growth... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
