US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Apr 2026) The softer-than-expected 0.24% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in April buys the Fed a bit of time as it waits to see how higher oil prices will feed through to broader inflation pressures... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update AI boom will not prevent Southern metros pushing ahead Within a sluggish national picture, metro jobs performance has varied widely with some cities - notably Washington D.C. - seeing big contractions, while others grew strongly - such as Las Vegas and... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Solid apartment fundamentals remain intact despite immigration slowdown Concerns that this administration’s anti-immigration push would trigger a sharp national slowdown in apartment demand have been misplaced. While unauthorised immigration has turned deeply negative... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will bumper US IPOs really break the stock market’s back? Not all high-profile US initial public offerings (IPOs) have presaged major corrections in the S&P 500. Nonetheless, this year’s hotly anticipated ‘AI’ deals – from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI – are... 27th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury rally still has further to run, if peace actually breaks out Even after their recent rebound, long-term government bonds arguably have more room than equities (and most currencies) to stage a further recovery from the energy price shock if there is a sustained... 26th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2026) Back-to-back house price declines in February in March, before the full effects of the Iran war on mortgage rates would even have been felt, suggest now is the time to downgrade our forecast. Rather... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three things that might limit any re-opening relief rally The chances of a large, broad-based relief rally if a the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened have probably diminished over time, although some markets have more upside than others. One that might benefit... 25th May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed alert to rising price pressures The hawkish tone of the Fed’s late-April minutes shows it would be ready to demonstrate its inflation-fighting credentials if it felt compelled to do so. We judge this would require a broadening in... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Growth jitters bring some relief to bond markets Long-term government bond yields have fallen by more over recent days than the recent relationship with oil prices would suggest. This may be a sign that investors are starting to worry about the... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft demand helping to keep inflation in check Data released this week suggest the hit to consumer demand from higher energy prices is helping to offset some of the direct inflationary impact on firms’ costs. This reduces the risk of second-round... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was not as large as feared amid mixed signs that the surge in gasoline prices weighed on discretionary spending. Regardless, the advance sales values... 22nd May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How concerning is the jump in PPI inflation? The acceleration in producer price (PPI) inflation so far this year has been narrower than was the case during the initial stages of the post-pandemic surge, which limits the risk of consumer price... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Focus Will AI earnings keep fuelling gains in the S&P 500? Any unravelling of the AI-related boom in earnings would upend the S&P 500. But even though there are reasons why that could conceivably happen, our base case is that the boom won’t turn to bust this... 21st May 2026 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2026) The small fall in housing starts in April masks a weaker underlying picture, with a surge in volatile multi-family starts offsetting a material weakening in single-family groundbreaking, albeit from a... 21st May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are equities a bigger threat to bonds than the other way around? While much has been made of the potential threat to equities from soaring bond yields, recent developments suggest there’s a case that the equity rally, or at least the associated investment boom, is... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
