Capital Daily A decisive move for Treasuries? Not likely The 10-year Treasury yield tried and failed to break meaningfully below the 4% mark repeatedly last year and is making its first attempt of 2026. We don’t think that it will happen this time either. 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in January is another illustration that elevated price inflation remains a threat. Excluding food and energy prices, which were pulled down by a 5.5% m/m... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2025) The 0.6% annualised decline in fourth-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looked, with most of the drag coming from weaker inventory building, whereas domestic demand growth rebounded to more than 2%... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The average tariff rate will decline following the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, but not by enough to materially change the near-term outlook for the economy. That hinges on AI-related investment and... 26th February 2026 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Health care likely to be the key driver of payrolls again We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 80,000 in February, but that the unemployment rate will nonetheless rebound to 4.4%. 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Backlash against key green policies has further to run While President Trump’s repeal of the “endangerment finding” could have a long-lasting impact on US emissions, the broader rollback of climate policy under Trump already appears to be weighing on... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Weakness in China’s equities could be short-lived After a weak start to the year, we expect Chinese equities to regain their footing over the coming months, partly because their valuations aren’t especially stretched. Moreover, we expect the AI rally... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons to be positive on the S&P 500 Strong profit growth, as emphasised by recent earnings reports, is one reason to think that the S&P 500 will do well over the rest of this year. In fact, we think there are at least three reasons. 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How the new tariff backdrop affects Canada & Mexico In this Update, we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Q1 2026 All-property valuation scores worsened slightly in Q4 2025, but remained in the fair value zone, despite property cap rates inching lower once again. Looking ahead, we think appraised cap rates still... 25th February 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Where next for the US stock market? Today’s rally leaves major US equity indices stuck in a range just shy of their all-time high. We think the next move that sticks will be higher, not lower. 24th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2025) The marked reacceleration in house price growth in December, to 5.5% on a three-month annualised basis from negative territory only four months prior, reflects strengthening housing demand as mortgage... 24th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Tariff turbulence & US-Iran stand-off keep investors on their toes Tariff uncertainty is back after the US Supreme Court’s ruling and President Trump’s response over the weekend, while US-Iran tensions continue to edge higher. In a week short on major economic data... 23rd February 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Trump hikes new global tariff rate to 15% In a social media post this morning, President Trump announced that he intends to raise his new global tariff rate from the 10% rate announced yesterday, to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122... 21st February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump imposes alternative 10% global tariff under Section 122 In a hastily-arranged press conference to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling that his IEEPA-related reciprocal tariffs were illegal, President Trump has announced that he will instead be imposing a... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
