US Commercial Property Outlook A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but... 22nd March 2024 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2024) Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the near... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still on track for a June rate cut Despite upward revisions to the median projections for both GDP growth and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s median forecast for interest rates still shows a cumulative 75bp of policy loosening this year... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024) The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation to 2.8%, from 2.9%, is further reason to expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon, although we still think it will wait until June rather than... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: Will southern metros continue to lead? 1713279600 The pandemic-induced “great migration” fuelled rapid growth for apartment rents and house prices in southern metros.
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar.) House prices stabilised in February and, despite emerging signs of financial stress among households, we believe that the risk of renewed price declines is limited. Nonetheless, with affordability so... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Southern house price outperformance to last The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Debt for another day Households are offsetting the impact of high interest rates by paying down less of their debt. While that has helped the economy to avoid recession, it also suggests there will be less of a boost from... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2024) The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing. 15th March 2024 · 1 min read