US Economics Update Immigration crackdown hitting labour supply After stemming the inflow of unauthorised immigration over the Southwest border, the Trump administration now appears to be gradually ramping up the number of detentions and removals. This crackdown... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2025) The rise in purchase mortgage applications in June supports our view that transactions will pick up in the second half of the year, even if they remain depressed by historical standards. 9th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook US Apartment Metros Outlook: Houston apartment market set for lift-off The size and speed of the apartment market recovery will vary widely across the 17 metros we cover over our five-year forecast. Southern markets are generally set to outperform, backed by strong... 8th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Markets are (probably) right to ignore Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop Market participants have largely shrugged off President Trump’s latest set of threats to raise tariffs on a range of countries, focusing on the fact that today’s “deadline” for re-imposing the... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: How far will the Bank of Canada go to support growth? 1753891200 With the economy facing an elevated risk of recession, we expect the Bank of Canada to do its part and cut rates further.
US Rapid Response Trump threatens 14 countries with higher reciprocal tariffs President Donald Trump has now released “letters” to 14 countries today, announcing that, unless they negotiate a deal over the next few weeks, he will impose reciprocal tariffs on those countries... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens to resurrect 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea President Donald Trump has released the first of his “letters” threatening to impose country-specific tariffs of 25% on both Japan and South Korea from August 1 st, if those countries can’t reach a... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weaker dollar not a significant inflationary threat A weaker dollar should not compound the upward pressure on goods prices from tariffs too greatly given that the greenback remains strong by historical standards and, in any case, the pass-through of... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lack of tariff clarity may not hold back US markets Despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets – especially equities and the dollar – to rally over the rest of the year. 7th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Summer sun may shine on the S&P 500 There may be little to stand in the way of further gains in the S&P 500 this summer, provided today’s enactment of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is followed next week by a market-friendly decision on... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trade woes continue The May trade release underscored the difficulties facing exporters. On the face of it the data were positive, as exports rose by 1.1% while imports fell by 1.6% m/m. This was off the back of a grim... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Budget reconciliation + tariffs will leave deficit unchanged With the House of Representatives today passing the Senate’s bigger version of the budget reconciliation, the Republicans appear to have met President Trump’s timeline – to have the bill reach his... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Solid US payrolls point to rebound in UST yields & USD Another robust US payrolls report supports our view that the FOMC will remain on hold this year and, in turn, our forecast for Treasury yields and the dollar to rebound over the coming months. 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2025) The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index edged... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
