Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada poised for slow growth Canada's economy is poised for a long period of slow growth, as the mining investment boom simmers down and other parts of the economy such as housing or exports are either over-extended or growing... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Despite impressive gains in equity prices, the recent rebound in gasoline prices and rising interest rates hit consumer confidence in July. The Conference Board measure dropped back modestly to 80.3... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q2/May) Three years after home sales started rising, and a year and a half since house prices turned up, the homeownership rate remains at an 18-year low. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New Fed Chair unlikely to alter policy outlook much Contrary to the speculation over the past few days, regardless of whether Lawrence Summers, Janet Yellen or a third candidate gets the nod, we suspect that the outlook for US monetary policy would... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth Although the recent incoming data have suggested that second-quarter GDP growth could be particularly disappointing, with a sub 1.0% reading possible, we still expect the Fed to begin tapering its... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger consumption growth unlikely to last The evidence suggests that, after a paltry 0.9% annualised in the first quarter, second-quarter real consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% annualised. Unfortunately, we suspect that consumption... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Despite the much bigger than generally expected 4.2% m/m surge in orders in June (consensus forecast was 1.4%, Capital Economics was 4.0%), the latest durable goods report actually suggests that... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence hints at steady Q3 GDP growth The uptick in the CFIB's small and medium-sized business confidence in July suggests that third-quarter GDP might rise by as much as 2.0% annualised. The details behind this optimism, however, appear... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed not quite ready to begin QE tapering There is only a remote chance that the Fed will make any major changes at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (31st July), waiting instead until September to begin... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun 13.) The strong rise in new home sales in June means that the housing market has come through its first major test of higher mortgage rates unscathed. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun 13.) The decline in sales and the rise in inventories means that supply conditions in the existing homes market are now the loosest they have been this year. That looks consistent with a slowdown in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank's second-quarter GDP estimate is too low We think the Bank of Canada has over-estimated the negative impacts on second-quarter GDP from Alberta's recent major flood and Quebec's construction labour strike. Instead of 1.0% annualised, we... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
