US Economics Weekly Domestic demand is building momentum The latest signs that economic growth is gathering momentum are especially encouraging as they imply that a broad-based improvement in domestic demand may be underway. A continuation of the housing... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The fall in mortgage delinquencies, fewer foreclosure starts and the lower foreclosure inventory rate in Q2 are all encouraging signs that the fundamentals of the housing market are mending. Although... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Early signs of slowdown in house price appreciation Mortgage applications for home purchase are showing the strain from higher mortgage interest rates, falling by 5.6% m/m in July. It’s too early to see the effect of higher rates on the existing home... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul 13.) Higher mortgage interest rates saw mortgage applications for home purchase post their largest month-on-month fall in almost two years in July. But the most up-to-date weekly figures recorded a small... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 1.5% m/m rebound in export volumes and further contraction in imports are further evidence that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter. This supports our view that the economy grew by... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The unexpectedly severe narrowing in the monthly external trade deficit to a near four-year low of $34.2bn in June, from $44.1bn, suggests that second quarter GDP growth was significantly stronger... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Although it is too soon to be sure, CoreLogic house price index for June brought some tentative evidence that the moderation in the pace of house price gains that we are anticipating in the second... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers' struggles likely to persist Canadian manufacturing production is being hampered by sluggish foreign demand and, to a lesser extent, moderating domestic demand. While gradually improving US demand is providing much needed support... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Further pick-up in GDP growth expected The 1.7% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP was pretty modest, even if it did come in above market expectations. Nevertheless, most other data releases last week indicated that GDP growth is... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 162,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was a little below the consensus forecast at 185,000, but this isn't going to stop the Fed from reducing its monthly asset purchases at September's FOMC... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices increasing by less than the indices suggest? The decline in the share of distressed sales is having an upward influence on house prices. But we aren’t convinced by claims that the house price indices’ failure to adjust for this effect is somehow... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The entire surge in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 55.4 in July, from 50.9, was due to an improvement in domestic activity. This new level is consistent with a further acceleration... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) Canada's economy regained some lost momentum mid-way through the last quarter, with real GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m in May. (See Chart.) Taking into consideration the likely weakness in June's GDP due... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) Real GDP growth actually accelerated from 1.1% annualised in the first quarter to 1.7% in the second, suggesting that the recovery is gaining momentum and probably strengthening the Fed's resolve to... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
