US Rapid Response GDP (Q2), ADP (Aug.), Advance Economic Indicators (Jul.) 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market has normalised The July JOLTS data cast further doubt on the idea that the Fed will need to keep rates high for longer. With the job quits rate now below its pre-pandemic peak and the job openings rate also rapidly... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun.) The limited supply of existing homes for sale helped house prices rise for the fifth consecutive month in June, according to Case-Shiller. Given the sizeable increase in prices in Q2 and that we... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SAVE to soften blow as student loan payments resume The SAVE student loan plan eases the burden on low-income households and should reduce the economic impact as repayments resume in October. Nonetheless, with the hit to disposable incomes just one of... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed not yet joining markets’ hawkish shift After a relatively cautious speech at Jackson Hole from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and data this week which cast doubt on the idea of an economic resurgence, we still aren’t convinced that the rise in... 25th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Jackson Hole: what a difference a year makes Market participants have taken Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference today as somewhat hawkish, even if the fallout, so far, is some way from the violent... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wildfires weighing on growth The worst Canadian wildfires on record appear to be behind much of the recent weakness in GDP and, with more areas now under evacuation orders, the data are likely to remain weak in the coming months. 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the FOMC’s commitment to data dependence in his Jackson Hole speech today, but there was no suggestion that signs of economic resilience have already prompted Fed... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors in Q2. However, for the retail sector this was offset by rises in the 10-year treasury yield. Consequently retail saw a small decline in valuations, whereas... 25th August 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will... 25th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth slowing towards pre-pandemic pace We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, illustrating that despite the apparent resilience of GDP growth, employment growth is still trending lower. 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What explains the resilience of economic growth? GDP in those sectors normally most sensitive to interest rates has weakened over the past year and is now well below the pre-pandemic trend. The resilience of overall economic growth to higher... 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect Treasury yields to fall We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
