US Housing Market Update Desperate buyers give home sales and prices a boost The surge in mortgage rates means home buyers with a mortgage preapproval from late January will see a rise in mortgage payments of 15% if they can’t find a home before their approval expires at the... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The surge in energy prices helped drive headline CPI inflation up to a 40-year high of 8.5% in March but, with base effects set to become much more favourable and signs that monthly gains in core... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Following 2022 budget, attention turns to the Bank The government used its 2022 Budget to set out a host of proposals to make housing more affordable for Canadians, but the impact of these measures on house prices will be far overshadowed by the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates set to rise to over 5% Mortgage rates are set to rise to over 5% within the next couple of weeks which will help cool, but not crash, housing market activity. Pent-up demand from the last couple of years as buyers have... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Another solid rise in employment drove the unemployment rate down to a 48-year low of just 5.3% in March, but the still-muted pace of wage growth suggests the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lurching from one extreme to the other The Fed minutes revealed that officials are in a hawkish mood and, after their brief flirtation with the flexible average inflation framework last year, they are now desperate to rapidly recalibrate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Apartment Metro Outlook Following a surge last year, rental growth at the national level is set to slow over the next couple of years as demand falls back and affordability constraints bite. Alongside a gradual rise in... 7th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week, beating market expectations of a decline, due to rising domestic production and another sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If sustained, higher... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A “forceful" 50 bp hike and the start of QT We now anticipate that the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate by 50 bp next week and announce the start of quantitative tightening. Nonetheless, we remain sceptical of the view priced into... 6th April 2022 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) The jobs recovery continued in February, for both total employment and office-based roles. But the divergence in performance of the last two years is persisting, reinforcing our view that many of the... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve and equities dancing to different tunes The resilience of the US stock market over the past month or so is hard to square with recent inversions in parts of the US Treasury yield curve. While we do not think that these inversions... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage rates continue their upward climb in March, reaching a 40-month high of 4.9% by the end of the month. As yet, that has done little to cut home purchase demand. Indeed, applications saw a... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Although the nominal trade deficit was unchanged at $89.2bn in February specifically, the recent weakness of real exports suggests that net trade was a substantial drag on first-quarter GDP growth. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb) The goods trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in February but, with commodity prices rising strongly since then and some of the jump in imports set to be reversed, it will rebound in March. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys suggest that firms’ and consumers’ long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored, which the Bank could use to justify a slower tightening cycle... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
