Capital Daily Upside for US equities probably limited in debt ceiling resolution We expect any resolution to the debt ceiling crisis to provide only a modest boost to “risky” assets such as equities, given how well they have held up thus far in anticipation of a deal being struck. 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar marches on thanks to “higher for longer” For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive... 26th May 2023 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise sharply, but there is more to come Our commercial property valuation scores rose sharply in Q1, suggesting that Q3 2022 was a trough in valuations. Office and retail sectors now look fairly valued. While we think retail values do not... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions easing The decline in the job vacancy rate to a 22-month low in March eases some of the pressure on the Bank of Canada but, with the CFIB Business Barometer showing a renewed rise in firms’ selling price... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth may have been weaker than thought This week’s upward revision to first-quarter GDP growth, to 1.3% annualised from 1.1%, suggests the economy had marginally more momentum than previously thought. But, in stark contrast, the first... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending, Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Apr.) 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling impasse likely to drag on into early June The debt ceiling stand-off will probably now drag on into early June, setting up the prospect of a near-default before a bipartisan bill is finally passed by Congress, possibly only after a more... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend continues We estimate that employment growth continued to trend gradually lower in May with a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls. Although the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, the report should also... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Portland, San Francisco and Seattle off to a bad start Metro level data for Q1 2023 showed the slowdown in occupier demand was widespread, with no market consistently outperforming across the sectors in terms of absorption. While office and industrial... 24th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks slumped as imports fell sharply. Meanwhile, implied product demand rose, but we think the usual summer boost to demand may be more subdued this year as economic growth slows. 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Too soon to sound the all-clear for construction The turnaround in the housing market, with sales and prices rebounding in April, has raised hopes that construction will hold up despite elevated borrowing costs. Media reports suggest that buyer... 24th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Narrow stock market rallies have rarely lasted long Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this year’s rally in US equities is just how narrow it has been. We think history suggests that this bodes poorly for the S&P 500’s prospects over the rest of... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels in April as a lack of existing homes for sale pushed buyers to the new build sector. But still-stretched affordability and a weakening economy... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Resilience of activity won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of the April activity data and apparent stabilisation in housing have raised hopes that a recession may yet be avoided this year. That said, forward-looking indicators suggest that the... 23rd May 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Economy taking a back seat for the US stock market for now The recent performance of sectors within the S&P 500 is hard to square with either the economic outlook or TIPS yields. We suspect it reflects shifts in sentiment around the tech sector, which may... 22nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
