China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy has returned to growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka – on the mend Recent data show Sri Lanka’s economy is now rebounding strongly from last year’s political and economic crisis. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, helped by the sharp drop in... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too soon to conclude property easing has failed It’s been two weeks since Chinese regulators announced a major easing of property controls and so far there hasn’t been a meaningful turnaround in new home sales at the national level. But many cities... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP on a knife edge, Pakistan inflation worries The scheduled highlights of the coming week are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. While Indonesia and Taiwan are very likely to leave policy settings unchanged, the... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Although a slight uptick in activity was expected, the August data turned out to be even better than anticipated. Fiscal support shored up investment but the real bright spot was a healthy pick-up in... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus How we think the outlook for EM equities stacks up We think emerging market equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market equities. In view of... 15th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to rally Given our dovish view of monetary policy in Emerging Markets (EMs) – and our increasingly less bearish view of the US economy – we think that EM local-currency government bond yields will fall across... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC cuts reserve requirements The People’s Bank has just announced a cut to bank reserve requirements. With private sector credit demand still weak, this is a gesture rather than a meaningful support measure. Substantial rate cuts... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) China’s bank loan growth stabilised in August after declining for three consecutive months, and broad credit growth edged up from July’s record low. We think that policy easing could drive a modest... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) CPI exited deflation in August, and PPI rose for the first time in nine months. Core inflation remained unchanged after hitting a 11-month high in July, while services inflation rose to its highest in... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bad news on inflation Headline inflation across Emerging Asia jumped last month due to a rise in food and fuel price inflation. We have raised our inflation forecasts for a number of countries to reflect the deterioration... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Huawei’s chip breakthrough Huawei’s new phone suggests that SMIC, China’s top chipmaker, has succeeded in mass-producing 7nm chips, an important step towards technological self-sufficiency. But it is too early to conclude that... 8th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September) The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to leave the overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.0% came as no surprise. Despite the poor near term outlook for economic growth, we expect BNM to remain... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Aug.) China’s export values continued to contract in August but this mostly reflects lower prices. Export volumes continued to hold up well and are still above their pre-pandemic trend. We doubt this... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
