India Economics Update RBI's rate-cutting cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep interest rates on hold today does not signal the end of the current loosening cycle. We are forecasting one more 25bp cut in this cycle, which would bring... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI increased in July, but conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a sustained... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Although most of Emerging Asia's PMIs ticked up in July, the woes of the region's manufacturing sectors are far from over. In fact, in the three economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about currency weakness? Asian currencies have fallen again over the past week, with a number now at multi-year low sagainst the US dollar. With the exception of Malaysia, where US dollar debt is high, currency weakness is... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bleak outlook for exports The slump in India’s exports over the past few months has been caused in part by the sharp fall in global oil prices and the relative strength of the US dollar, two trends that are unlikely to be... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How useful is Malaysia's PMI? A new manufacturing PMI survey for Malaysia launched by Nikkei and Markit earlier this month appears to track the hard data reasonably well and points to a further slowdown in the manufacturing sector... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Taiwan slowed much more sharply than expected in the second quarter of the year, with the recent slump in export demand taking a heavy toll on the economy. However, there are reasons to... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand will push palm oil prices lower With huge soybean supplies likely to push down the price of soy oil, we expect demand for palm oil to remain weak. Combined with high stocks, we think the price of palm oil will fall further this year... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies caught up in EM sell-off Asian currencies have been caught up in a general sell-off of EM assets this month, as interest rate hikes in the US have started to loom. Some currencies are now at or close to multi-year lows. That... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New Financial Code risks damaging RBI independence The draft version of the government’s Financial Code, released last week, could have important implications for the functioning of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The adoption of a voting monetary... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Bigger risks to growth in Malaysia than 1MDB scandal The controversy surrounding the state investment company, 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), has intensified in recent days after Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has been accused of taking money from... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee weakness unlikely to concern policymakers The recent weakness of the rupee, which has fallen by more than 1.5% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, is unlikely to worry policymakers. For a start, the fall in the rupee is a... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
