Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to keep rates low for a long time The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% today and sounded more downbeat about the prospects for growth this year. The poor outlook for the economy... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Myanmar: the economic consequences of the coup Myanmar’s biggest investors and trading partners are its neighbours, notably China, which won’t respond to yesterday’s coup with sanctions. But the economic consequences could still be significant if... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Vietnam: the Party’s plans for the next five years The period covered by the new Five-Year Plan offers Vietnam an opportunity to establish itself as a major export manufacturing hub. Policy priorities will be to improve the business environment so as... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jan.) Korean exports remain elevated at the start of this year, buoyed by shipments of electronics and autos. While some of this strength may fade later in the year, Korea’s external sector is still set for... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea recovery, new virus threats The latest batch of activity data from Korea indicate the economy held up well in December despite the surge in cases and suggest that companies are learning to cope better with new COVID-19... 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4, provisional) Figures released today show Taiwan’s economy continued to outperform last quarter, thanks to continued strong demand for the island’s exports. Although the economy will continue to slow in q/q terms... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We see smaller gains ahead for EM Asian equities We think that the recent rally in emerging market (EM) Asian equities outside of China will slow substantially this year, and that they will begin to underperform other EM equities. Global State of... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Further rate cuts likely despite rising inflation Headline inflation has crept higher in most countries across Emerging Asia over the past few months and looks set to rise sharply over the first half of this year due to a rebound in energy price... 27th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia reforms, Vietnam leadership transition The near-term outlook for Indonesia’s economy is poor. A failure to contain the coronavirus means that the economic recovery is likely to be slow and fitful. But long-term economic prospects received... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia easing cycle not over Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, but we doubt this marks the end of the central bank’s easing cycle. With the economic recovery struggling, inflation below... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank still likely to ease Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with the country once again in lockdown following a surge in COVID-19 cases, we think that the Bank will eventually be... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2021 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We doubt Chinese equities are in a bubble The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. 19th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New outbreaks key risk to above-consensus forecasts Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are... 18th January 2021 · 36 mins read
