Emerging Markets Economics Update How reliant are EM governments on high commodity prices? A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chávez re-election to deepen Venezuela’s economic problems Hugo Chávez’s re-election as President of Venezuela is likely to result in a sharp sell-off in the bond market over the coming days and a 40-50% devaluation of the bolivar before year-end. More... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Stimulus starting to take hold in Brazil There are signs that policy stimulus is starting to take hold in Brazil. Retail sales are growing, car sales hit a record high in August and even output in the beleaguered industrial sector has... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Where is Venezuela heading after the election? A victory for Hugo Chávez in next month’s presidential election could culminate in an economic crisis in Venezuela at some point during the next six year term. By contrast, a win for the Opposition’s... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at regional growth 2012 has been a year of mixed fortunes for Latin America’s largest economies. In Chile and Peru, growth has bounced back following a minor wobble in late 2011 and both countries are currently... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chavez pumps the economy ahead of Venezuelan election With the outcome of the Venezuelan presidential election still delicately balanced, the authorities are taking steps to pump economic growth. But while that raises the chance that President Chavez... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pre-election spending deepens structural problems in Venezuela The recent sale of debt by the Venezuelan authorities will help to bolster economic growth ahead of October’s presidential election. But the fact that the debt issuance has effectively been monetised... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong start to the year in Chile unlikely to last The Chilean economy registered strong growth in Q1, but we doubt that the impressive performance can be maintained. With copper prices already down by about 10% so far this month, and likely to fall... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read