Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: weaker currency bolsters case for holding rates The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) has deployed a raft of measures to combat currency appreciation in early 2013 and for the moment, at least, appears to be succeeding in its efforts. With the nuevo sol... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: tighter fiscal policy would help to rebalance economy Peru’s economy expanded by a healthy 5.9% y/y in Q4, however growth continues to be heavily dependent on domestic demand. In the current environment of improved global risk appetite, there is a risk... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate change still looks a distant prospect The latest data do little to change our view that Peruvian interest rates are going nowhere this year. Persistent concerns over the strength of the sol mean that policymakers are far more likely to... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A new front in the "currency war" An improvement in risk appetite since the turn of the year has supported further gains in Latin American financial markets. But with the good news has come renewed upward pressure on the region’s... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bright start to the year as global tensions ease This is the first edition of our new monthly Latin America Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Peru's central bank in 2013 The effectiveness of Peru’s benchmark interest rate as a policy instrument is constrained by high levels of foreign currency lending and concerns over the strength of the sol. Further increases in... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth picking up, but 2013 set to be a testing year Growth in Latin America has accelerated in the final months of this year. We reckon that regional GDP is on course to expand by just over 3% y/y in Q4, up from less than 2.5% y/y in Q3. This should... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Are Peru and Chile losing their fiscal discipline? Chile’s economy is currently in a sweet spot between strong growth and low inflation, and we do not expect any moves in interest rates in the near term. But to the extent that rates are changed next... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates set to remain on hold throughout 2013 Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% last night after a fall in food inflation brought the headline rate down to target for the first time since mid-2011. Looking forward, with the scope for... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A better end to the year Latin America appears to be enjoying an end of year growth spurt. We estimate that regional GDP growth accelerated to around 3% y/y in Q3, from a three-year low of 2.5% y/y in Q2. What’s more, growth... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian easing cycle not yet over Colombian interest rates will probably fall further next year as external headwinds cause GDP growth to slow. By contrast, a weaker global economy could be helpful for Peru, where the latest economic... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
