Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next meeting in March... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further fall... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Mexican inflation and Banxico? Inflation in Mexico has dropped back over the past year but rapid wage growth continues to fuel strong underlying price pressures and means that the headline rate won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4%... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Provisional) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mexico’s GDP growth, to just 0.1% q/q in Q4, is likely to be followed by continued sluggish growth over the coming quarters. At the margin, the data increase the... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem... 26th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
