Asia Economics Update Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2021) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the onus is on the services sector to drive the recovery over the coming months. The fall in the manufacturing PMI suggests that that sector won’t rebound much further... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update How much further will inflation rise? The recent jump in India’s consumer price inflation has taken us (and most others) by surprise and we have revised up our near-term forecasts. However, a big chunk of the surge – even in the most... 22nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Global demand peaking but shortages to stay There are tentative signs that global demand for Asian consumer goods has peaked. But with demand for key components still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to persist for some time... 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 21st June) Korean export values look set to dip in June after a record high in May. We suspect goods export values have peaked. 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold as PBOC leans on other policy tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold again today. The PBOC has now fully reversed last year’s credit acceleration using quantitative controls. Accordingly, policy rate hikes that... 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hawkish, vaccine hopes, Singapore trade softens Policymakers in Korea have started to sound increasingly hawkish about the outlook for monetary policy, supporting our view that the Bank of Korea will begin raising interest rates before the end of... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank to broaden its gaze to encompass climate change While the Bank of Japan kept its major policy settings unchanged today and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, it extended the deadline for applications to its emergency lending... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s census: the good, the bad and the ugly After a month-long delay, the key results from China’s once-a-decade census were published today. They weren’t as bad earlier media reports had suggested – the population continued to rise at much the... 11th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China’s population may have peaked China’s census has revealed the first population decline since the People’s Republic was founded, according to the FT. If this is confirmed and the beginning of a trend, China’s challenge in... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Contours of a possible trade deal are emerging China has reportedly fleshed out its offer to boost imports from the US. In return, the US is working on a deal to allow ZTE to resume operations and may call off the planned tariffs on Chinese goods... 6th June 2018 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus The coming slowdown in China China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only even previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this... 14th May 2018 · 24 mins read
