RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April With the labour market still very tight and inflation far above the RBA’s target, we expect another 25bp hike next week. However, with inflation starting to level off and consumption growth softening... 30th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: more tightening to come The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.25%), and reiterated that it is likely to continue tightening policy gradually over the coming months. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs add further evidence of another large blow to services activity as virus disruptions intensified this month. The hit to industry looks to have been more modest. But downside risks... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Oct. 22) Industrial production saw a steeper contraction in October, while firms’ output forecasts for November and December point to a weak rebound. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct.) 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
RBI Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow With inflation having passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we expect the MPC to slow the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate at the conclusion of... 29th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Retail Sales (Oct. 22) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in August and will hover around 2.5% through 2023 due to a looming economic recession. Meanwhile, retail sales values barely grew in October from September and... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update How will the authorities respond? The authorities will not allow a protest movement to occupy China’s streets for any length of time. If the protests continue, a crackdown is very likely. They have no good options in the near-term to... 28th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Valuations may limit the outperformance of Indian equities We think the stretched valuations of Indian equities compared to those elsewhere will prevent the standout performance of Indian equities seen so far in 2022 being sustained over the longer run. China... 28th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2022) Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect... 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22) 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
