Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: surprise rate cut, further easing to be gradual Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) cut interest rates in a surprise move today but we think further monetary loosening will be gradual as concerns about the external position are likely to persist in the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May.) Manufacturing PMIs declined in most countries in Emerging Asia. Weak demand and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on manufacturing output in Asia over the coming quarters. 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy rebounded at the start of the year. But with higher interest rates still feeding through and fiscal policy turning slightly less supportive... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Further tightening unlikely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bps, to 2.0%, today but given the relatively benign outlook for inflation we think this marks the end of the tightening cycle. 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (May) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery was still ongoing in May. Waning fiscal support weighed on construction activity. But manufacturing output ticked up and the service sector is... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 23) While the pick-up in inflation in April mostly reflects base effects from the excise duty cut a year ago, trimmed mean CPI picked up as well. With inflation set to overshoot the RBA’s forecasts this... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Apr. 23) 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Update Has corporate Japan cleaned up its act? Many commentators have pinned the recent outperformance of Japan’s stock market on the stronger focus by Japanese firms to maximise shareholder value. But while those efforts showed some success in... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
