Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of exports softening, new governor at the BoK There are growing signs that demand for the region’s exports are starting to soften. Weaker external demand will add to the headwinds facing the region’s economies, which are already being hit by the... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly PM Johnson trip, NBFC clean up, WPI surges Underpinning UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India are talks toward a free-trade agreement, which both countries are aiming to have in place before the end of the year. But the early... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh yen & bond market turmoil, poor growth outlook The Bank of Japan had to step in yet again to defend its 10-year yield target this week, but it didn’t have to go to the same lengths as in late-March to keep yields in check. With yields nailed to... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2022) Inflation picked up in March due to a further rise in utilities inflation and a jump in food inflation. And headline inflation will hit 2% in the April data released in just under a month’s time as... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s iron ore consumption peaked Iron ore prices have rocketed by close to 30% since the start of 2022 on supply fears. Yet, we expect cooler economic activity in China to weigh on iron ore demand, causing prices to fall by end-year. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Four questions on FX intervention With the yen falling to a 20-year low against the dollar, talk of foreign exchange market intervention is growing. While we think the bar for any intervention is high, this Update answers some key... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy settings under threat but BoJ won’t yield Despite coming under significant pressure in both bond and currency markets in recent weeks, the Bank of Japan will not respond to inflation reaching its 2% target by hiking its short-term policy rate... 21st April 2022 · 8 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Global aluminium output fell by 1.5% y/y in March with high power costs keeping a lid on production growth. Looking ahead, we expect regions where energy prices are more manageable to continue to... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC disappoints again Despite calling on banks to nudge down borrowing costs, the PBOC stopped short of requiring that they lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) benchmarks this month. For now, policymakers are mostly relying on... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten gradually Bank Indonesia left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the relatively benign outlook for inflation means the tightening cycle is likely to be very gradual. 19th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Reopening could be a damp squib With all domestic restrictions gone and the booster rollout further severing the link between cases and deaths, the conditions for a reopening bounce are in place. Moreover, consumers have ample room... 19th April 2022 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter but it still slowed in q/q terms. In practice, the figures probably understate the slowdown. And growth looks set to be even weaker in Q2 given the... 18th April 2022 · 3 mins read
