China Economics Weekly Larger deficit comes with a catch Tighter oversight of off-budget fiscal activity has resulted in the first net fall in bond issuance by local government financing vehicles and policy banks in over two decades. That’s one reason why... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s manufacturing ambitions constrained by energy India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make the country a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. But the increasing strain that the power network has come under over the past... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will probably leave yield cap unchanged for now Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may tweak Yield Curve Control yet again at next week’s meeting, but we aren’t convinced the Bank will lift the 10-year yield cap just three months after... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stakes rise for RBA’s November policy decision With inflation surprising on the upside and the labour market running out of spare capacity, the case for the RBA to tighten policy has never been more compelling. Although RBA Governor Michele... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending exposes India’s weak spot Continued strong growth in unsecured lending is putting India’s banks at risk of rising defaults, a concern that is exacerbated by their relatively low loan loss absorption capacity. This raises the... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by 25 bps (to 6.50%) in an out-of-cycle interest rate decision. While we had expected an interest rate hike at the upcoming... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q3) Economic growth in Korea was stronger than expected in Q3 but we think the economy is set to weaken in the near term as support from external demand fades while tight fiscal and monetary policy... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support underpins reacceleration Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2023) With price pressures being slower to abate than the RBA had anticipated, we think the Bank will deliver one final 25bp rate at its next meeting in November. 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia election – what is at stake? Reforms introduced by President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) should enable the economy to continue growing rapidly once he steps down next year. The key question as the election approaches... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal support needed to prevent end-year slump The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year. Fiscal... 24th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: How much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies? 31st October 2023, 8:00AM GMT In light of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement this today, our Asia team hosted an online briefing all about the impact of rising bond yields on Asia’s economies and markets.
