Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls for 2024 Our three key calls for 2024 are that growth will struggle, inflation will fall and that central banks will start to cut interest rates sooner than most expect. 22nd December 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy still easing but not enough to hit growth target Although the Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, today’s coordinated reductions in commercial bank deposit rates suggest the PBOC is still on an easing path. Meanwhile, a lower headline... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2024 In our final Weekly of 2023 we explore three key themes for the coming year - when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, the economic impact of the general election, and the outlook for the... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market still set to turn Leading indicators suggest that employment growth in Australia is unlikely to slow meaningfully in the near term. However, even if job creation remains resilient, it is unlikely to keep pace with the... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia Housing Watch Although house prices in Melbourne have started to fall anew, we doubt that they are the canary in the coal mine. A persistent shortfall in housing supply should ensure that house prices across most... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How greedy is Australia’s taxman? While the income tax cuts due next year are widely seen as necessary to reverse bracket creep, the income tax burden isn’t particularly onerous by historical standards. However, Australia taxes income... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector continuing gradual recovery Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic recovery is continuing as the service sector makes up further lost ground. With policy support still flowing and consumers feeling less... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ normalisation may lift JGB yields & bolster the yen We expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise next year, as the era of negative interest rates there comes to an end and constraints on the bond market ease. And we think the yield gap... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Negative interest rates will end in early-2024 The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And while Governor Ueda is sounding more confident that 2% inflation will be sustained, we now expect the Bank of Japan to... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Negative interest rates will end in early-2024 We are resending this publication because it was incorrectly sent as a Japan Rapid Response. The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And while Governor Ueda is... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
