Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark to seek wider rate differential with the ECB The strictures of Denmark’s exchange rate peg means that the Nationalbank will follow the ECB’s lead as it hike rates further over the coming months. But with the krone remaining towards the “strong”... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing strains, migrant job losses Regulators have called on banks to step up lending to developers. But with banks becoming more cautious about issuing mortgages in the face of mortgage boycotts and local governments tightening... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly New Covid wave, more balanced inflation outlook The government so far hasn’t responded to the surge in new virus cases to a record high with any restrictions, but the slowdown in mobility suggests that consumer spending will soften regardless... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB embarks on treacherous rate hike cycle The ECB’s 50bp rate hike today is likely to be the first move in a sustained interest rate hiking cycle which we think will bring the deposit rate to around 2% next year. We also think the Bank will... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB slams on the monetary policy brakes South Africa’s central bank upped the pace of tightening further with a 75bp hike, to 5.50%, as policymakers’ intensifying fears about inflation (and inflation expectations) trumped any concerns about... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s referendum, Egypt privatisation, MENA Outlook Tunisians will vote on proposed constitutional amendments on Monday, which could further deter foreign investors and impede progress on an IMF deal, compounding the country's economic problems... 21st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We expect a renewed rise in Gilt yields before long The release of strong UK labour market and inflation figures this week, coupled with the growing likelihood that the next Conservative Party leader will loosen fiscal policy, strengthen our conviction... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
