Canada Economics Weekly Liberal’s infrastructure spending won’t boost economy The Liberal government’s budget plan to lift the economy over the next two years with close to C$12bn in infrastructure funding will be a tall task, one that we would not count on to produce much... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What hasn’t Mr Osborne ruled out cutting? By promising no further welfare cuts, the Government has ruled out yet another way of raising some money should it need to. This suggests that the Conservatives will struggle to meet their strict... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Fiscal policy to take lead over monetary policy in supporting growth The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today. With the government stepping up efforts to support growth, we expect rates to be left on hold throughout 2016. 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal stimulus budget won’t boost economy The 2016 Federal budget delivered today provides only a modest fiscal stimulus response to the flagging economy. Despite the more dismal GDP growth outlook this year, policymakers weren’t comfortable... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to call in the IMF? Given that Brazil’s growing debt burden is denominated overwhelmingly in local currency there is little need for the foreign currency financing that an IMF bailout would provide. Instead, the main... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s disappointing public finances figures were yet another blow for the Chancellor by suggesting the OBR’s new forecasts published in last week’s Budget already look too optimstic . Meanwhile... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally won’t be sustained The recent rally in the Canadian dollar, which has been driven by rising oil prices and downgrades to the outlook for US interest rates, is unlikely to last beyond the middle of this year. Admittedly... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Osborne’s big squeeze really happen? Large parts of the Budget were clearly aimed solely at repairing the damage that the OBR’s new economic forecasts did to the Chancellor’s chances of meeting his fiscal target. That said, there is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR too downbeat about productivity The OBR’s decision to cut its productivity growth forecasts left the Chancellor scrambling to find some money to achieve his 2019/20 surplus goal. But we think that productivity growth will be much... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Households still facing big squeeze despite Budget giveaway While the measures announced at yesterday’s Budget amounted to a small net giveaway to consumers, the bigger picture is that a significant fiscal squeeze still lies ahead. And although retailers did... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2016: Safety first Whether the chancellor meets his objective of eliminating the budget deficit by the end of this parliament depends upon how well the economy performs. Because we are more optimistic than the OBR about... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Delay in sales tax hike becoming more likely PM Abe has invited outspoken opponents of tighter fiscal policy to a panel debating whether or not to raise the sales tax next year, which suggests that the chances of a renewed postponement are... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in Sri Lanka? Sri Lanka’s request for an IMF loan should ease fears about a potential balance of payments crisis, but the mistakes that put the country in this position will need to be addressed. Most importantly... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
