Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada will cut rates later this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the rate outlook was largely in response to the improvement in economic growth early this year, fiscal stimulus... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has monetary policy lost its power? We do not share the view that monetary policy has become impotent. However, scope to step up monetary stimulus much beyond current levels is small. The Bank of Japan’s efforts to boost growth and lift... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF still behind the curve Despite being revised down yet again, we think the IMF’s latest projections for global growth are still too high. This is partly because the IMF appears to be constrained by the official, government... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired The Egyptian government faces a tough task in meeting its budget deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year and, worryingly, there seems to be a growing sense that the authorities are wavering on... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) The latest fiscal data for central governments show that Greece made a notably strong start to 2016 while the performance over the periphery as a whole was mixed . Meanwhile, the first releases of... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job Uncertainty regarding who will take over at the helm of the Turkish central bank when the current governor’s term expires this month has raised concerns that a government loyalist could be put in... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: 2017 budget cuts to keep fiscal deficit in check The Mexican government announced over the weekend preliminary plans to make additional cuts to government spending next year. This will keep the budget deficit in check against a backdrop of much... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout The public spat between Greece and the IMF underlines the fragility of the country’s latest bailout deal and demonstrates that its long-term future inside the currency union is still far from assured... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change Comments today by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in an interview with Bloomberg confirm our view that Saudi policymakers are comfortable with a period of low oil prices. What’s... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate hikes, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC’s press conference this afternoon reinforced our view that concerns about loose fiscal policy will prompt a move towards tighter monetary conditions. This might happen as soon as the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC “action” won’t derail the economic recovery The relatively timid measures announced by the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) today underlined that it is set to tread cautiously when implementing macroprudential policy... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer recovery still going strong The consumer recovery is still going strong, with household spending the driving force of the overall economic recovery. Although the retail sales figures have been a bit volatile recently, the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
