UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) The disappointing tone of the latest public borrowing figures ended the recent short run of more upbeat economic data and indicated that the Chancellor has started the fiscal year on the back foot. 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone We think the Treasury (HMT) report, published today, suggesting that the UK will go into recession if it leaves the EU goes a bit far. Existing trading relationships will remain in place over the two... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G7 finance ministers This weekend’s G7 finance ministers meeting in Sendai, Japan, is likely to focus on exchange rate and fiscal policy and to end with another warning about the dangers of Brexit. However, no major... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Dutch consumers keep on spending? Despite the recent falls in consumer confidence, there are a number of reasons to be positive about the outlook for household spending in the Netherlands over the coming years. Nevertheless, worries... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French strikes darken the economic outlook This week’s French protests over a watered down labour market law highlight just how hard it will be to reform the economy. This suggests that France’s economic weakness will be prolonged... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Tax amendments another success for Modi government Recent amendments to the tax treaty between India and Mauritius - the terms of which have made Mauritius the leading source of foreign investment into India - are likely to bring more benefits than... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme Brazil’s new Finance Minister has unveiled a string of eye-catching market-friendly measures this morning, as part of the first plank of his new economic programme. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes The sharp fall in Nigeria’s oil production could, if sustained, shave more than 1%-pt off GDP growth this year. Lower oil output will also add to the country’s fiscal and current account problems. 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting risks bode ill for Italy Like much of the rest of the euro-zone, Italy’s economy got off to a decent start to the year. However,the outlook for growth remains weak and the risks to the recovery are mounting. Eventually... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout The Mexican government’s bailout of the country’s state-owned energy company Pemex does not have major fiscal implications. The costs are manageable and non-recurring, so should not require... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt talks won’t provide much relief The compromises reached by Greece and its creditors this week should allow the first bailout review to finally be completed and have prompted a favourable market response. But the first discussions... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland’s new Government keep the recovery going? The formation of a new Irish government has removed some short-term political uncertainty. And the outlook for the economy over the coming years is fairly bright. That said, the government can do... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic Last week’s EC Spring forecasts presented a pretty uninspiring picture of the euro-zone economy’s prospects. Despite the unprecedented degree of monetary policy support, growth is expected to slow... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
