Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (August 2024) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged but if, as we expect, growth slows further and inflation remains very low, we think the central bank will start loosening policy from... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, and offered little sign that it will soon start an easing cycle. While most other analysts expect monetary... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dovish rate cut by Riksbank, more to follow We think the Riksbank will follow today’s 25bp rate cut with a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year to take the policy rate to 2.75%. But we expect the terminal rate to be 2.5% which... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2024) Alongside the Riksbank’s decision to reduce the policy rate by 25bp today to 3.5%, policymakers also lowered their rate expectation for the end of this year from either 3.25% or 3.0% at the June... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the... 19th August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2024) The 0.6% q/q fall in Chilean GDP in Q2 is mainly payback for a strong Q1, and we expect a return to positive growth in Q3. Still, the Q2 figures should the central bank confidence to deliver a couple... 19th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ would only cut rates if economy tanks While we expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% next year, the Bank’s still very accommodative stance means that this alone won’t trigger interest rate cuts. We think it would require a... 19th August 2024 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Not a balance sheet recession, yet Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no... 16th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption revival points to another rate hike The strong rebound in household consumption last quarter was underpinned by a pick-up in real incomes. This should allay lingering concerns among BoJ policymakers that the economy is too weak to cope... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
