Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and the softness in the latest inflation and wage data suggests to us that a bit more monetary easing will be delivered... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The larger than expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 31.1% y/y, provides a green light for the central bank to continue its easing cycle at its meeting next Thursday. We maintain our... 3rd December 2025 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future With inflation showing signs of persistence, activity recovering, and the labour market holding its own, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to deliver a hawkish hold at its meeting next week... 3rd December 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2025) Although activity lost a bit of momentum last quarter, we suspect growth will hover at around its trend rate in the year ahead. The upshot is that, although the RBA won’t cut rates any further, we... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: shifting towards interest rate hikes? There’s a growing debate about whether the Colombian central bank will hike rates. And several plausible triggers – from a pre-election spending spree to a bumper minimum wage hike – could tip the MPC... 2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan’s economy to keep flying in 2026 Taiwan is on course to record GDP growth of over 7% this year and our forecast for the economy to expand by another 5% next year lies well above the consensus. Rapid growth in exports of AI-related... 2nd December 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes not a threat to global markets The prospect of the Bank of Japan resuming its hiking cycle a bit sooner than previously thought has sent tremors through global bond and equity markets this week, but we suspect they could... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will bring rates close to neutral by 2027 The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation... 2nd December 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its... 1st December 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Assessing data quality in advanced economies While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other... 1st December 2025 · 21 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing can’t buck its affordability problem Australia's house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan will lift its policy rate this month In response to a hawkish speech by Governor Ueda today, we now expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th December instead of our previous... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A path to peace? The revised peace plan worked on by the US and Ukraine in Geneva last Sunday has the potential to result in a more balanced framework to end the war in Ukraine than looked likely last week, but we... 28th November 2025 · 7 mins read
