UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slower loan growth good for China, bad for equities April’s sharp fall in the growth of lending in China could expose the degree to which credit growth has supported equities and broader sentiment. Slower loan growth tempers concerns about asset... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower loan growth good for China, bad for equities April’s sharp fall in the growth of lending in China could expose the degree to which credit growth has supported equities and broader sentiment. Slower loan growth tempers concerns about asset... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan's recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan’s recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the loss of capacity a serious inflationary threat? Several commentators have argued that inflation will pick up sooner than generally anticipated as a result of a permanent loss of capacity during the recession. However, it seems just as likely that... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rates close to their trough The Norges Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis shows that it remains committedto preventing a major economic downturn. But with the economy set to experience a much... 25th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the lower pound stave off deflation? The sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate does not preclude the danger that a short bout of deflation driven by commodity prices later this year will be followed by a broader and longerlasting... 2nd March 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed goes for an inflation target, not Treasury purchases 18th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE will not eradicate deflation dangers The uncertainties over the likely effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures and the potentially negative effect on inflation expectations suggest that the imminent adoption of... 12th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can pay freezes prevent further job losses? A number of companies have announced pay freezes in the past week or two. However, even if a significant proportion of the workforce foregoes a pay rise this year, we doubt that further sharp rises in... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Living with deflation (Q1 2009) Deflation is back! For the first time in very nearly half a century, the UK is likely to experience negative consumer price inflation in 2009. 24th December 2008 · 1 min read
