UK Economics Weekly Is the UK heading for a US-style stalling in inflation? There are no obvious signs that the UK will follow in the US’s footsteps and that the downward trend in UK inflation will soon stall. But the risks are tilted towards inflation proving stickier and... 12th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the... 12th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro weakness won’t stop the ECB, Italy fiscal worries The ECB gave a strong signal this week that it will cut rates in June. A later start to the Fed’s easing cycle or further weakness in the euro are unlikely to deter it. Meanwhile, Italy’s latest... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in economic activity, particularly for industry... 12th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ still on track to cut rates in August Although the RBNZ toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting this week, markets seem to be worried the Bank will take its cue from the Fed and keep rates higher for longer. However, with domestic... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen hitting a fresh multi-decade low against the dollar this week, the Ministry of Finance is signaling a growing likelihood of intervention in the foreign exchange markets. However, the Bank... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to rebound before long While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 100bp this year The ECB’s decision to update its guidance suggests that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June is very likely. Christine Lagarde would understandably not commit to a path of rate cuts, but... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The minutes of their most recent meetings revealed that the RBA and the RBNZ... 11th April 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2024) CPI inflation rose less than expected in March but is still trending upwards. We think an easing of food price deflation and the ongoing modest economic recovery will support a slow reflation in the... 11th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. Central bank governor... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (March 2024) The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ remains on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t drop any hints as to when it might pivot to looser policy at its meeting today. However, as inflation risks recede, we still expect the Bank to start cutting... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
