Global Markets Update New market forecasts – an even stronger dollar ahead We have revised up our GDP forecasts for the US and Japan. (See our latest US Economic Outlook and Japan Economics Weekly.) At the same time, we have reviewed our projections for currency, bond... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling caught in the middle Co-ordination between fiscal and monetary policy already appears to have stepped up a gear since the new Government took office, with Bank of England Governor Mervyn King endorsing the Government’s... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro heading for parity While some of the forces bearing down on the euro over recent months may now be easing, there are plenty of other reasons to expect the currency to fall further. Indeed, our forecast that the euro... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would QE be so bad for the euro? The experience in both Japan and the US shows that the adoption of quantitative easing by the ECB would not necessarily do lasting harm to the euro. But we still expect the currency to fall a lot... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Estonia given green light to join EMU Today’s announcement that Estonia will join the euro-zone owes much to the huge fiscal tightening enacted last year. But EMU-entry will not be a panacea for the economy, and we expect GDP to contract... 12th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the People's Bank signalling a policy shift? Contrary to some suggestions doing the rounds in the media and the markets, China’s central bank has not shifted its position on exchange rate policy in its latest quarterly report. 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will sterling markets fare after the election? We are not convinced that a hung parliament in the UK would now be such bad news for all sterling assets. Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s general election, we think 10-year gilt yields will drop to... 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone survive? The euro-zone should stay together for another few years at least. But the region’s periphery requires an excruciating competitive adjustment that might well plunge it into depression. Meanwhile... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could a strong pound be a post-election headache? Analysis of the likely behaviour and influence of the exchange rate after the election has tended to focus on the possibility of a further sharp depreciation in the event of a hung parliament. But... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can Czech policymakers do about the koruna? Attempts by Czech policymakers to stem the recent rise in the koruna may have some effect at the margin, but we doubt that they will do much to fundamentally alter the value of the currency. In the... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets fail to buy into hung parliament “nightmare” (Apr 10) Much has been made of the implications for the markets of a hung parliament outcome after the general election on May 6th. But we doubt that the absence of a decisive victory for any of the main... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Concerns over a strong ruble unlikely to persist The pace of Russia’s recovery is likely to fade and the ruble is likely to weaken if, as we expect, oil prices fall back over the next year or so. 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies to rise further Resumed renminbi appreciation against the dollar looks only a matter of time. Other currencies in Emerging Asia should rise too but the overall impact of a move by China should be small. The Korean... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong are speculative inflows? Speculative inflows into China’s economy were weak in the first quarter, but they seem to have picked up in the last few weeks as expectations have strengthened that the renminbi’s appreciation... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the sterling boost ever arrive? (Q2 2010) Hopes for a strong recovery in the UK economy rest on a decent boost to the external sector from the drop in the pound. But it is looking less and less likely that the exporting sector will manage to... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
