Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation data from Mexico contain no signs that a weaker peso is fuelling price pressures. With inflation still below target, policymakers have room to keep interest rates low even if the Fed... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does Plan B for Greece look like? EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s claim that Greece’s creditors now have a “detailed Grexit scenario” may be a bluff to strengthen their bargaining position. But it is not hard to imagine what the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the euro-zone’s next weakest link? Although the ECB’s OMT programme may allow Portugal to weather a Grexit, the country still faces serious challenges that might jeopardise the country’s long-term position within the currency union. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Eqyptian pound has further to fall The Central Bank of Egypt has loosened its grip onthe pound over the past week and we think the currency probably needs to fall by at least another 5% in order to restore external competiveness... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Another rate hike to shore up shilling The surprise move by Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike its key interest rate by 150bp today, for the second consecutive meeting, was a signal that the new Governor is serious about curbing... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lower dollar won't prevent further RBA rate cuts Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the second month in a row today and did not provide a clear hint that more cuts lie ahead, we still... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Ringgit weakness to remain a constraint on policy in Malaysia The Malaysian ringgit weakened past its 1998-2005 peg level of 3.80 against the dollar today for the first time since the peg was scrapped. Today’s decline may have been triggered by concern over the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in real wages looks sustainable The latest labour market data provided further evidence that the recovery in wages now has momentum. Indeed, the headline (three-month average of the annual) growth rate in average weekly earnings... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is there an end in sight to the export slowdown? Emerging Asia’s exports have continued to disappoint over recent months. The downturn can be explained partly by falling commodity prices and currency effects. However, weak global demand has also... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Grexit matter for Japan? With trade and direct financial ties between Japan and Europe relatively weak, the main channel through which Greek exit from the euro-zone could affect Japan is a pick-up in safe haven flows. If that... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
