China Data Response FX reserves (Feb.) The smallest fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in four months suggests that capital outflows have eased, allowing the People’s Bank (PBOC) to slow the pace of its intervention. 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may have to step in to weaken dollar The strengthening in the Australian dollar to an eight-month high of US$0.74 has left it at a level that poses a serious threat to the economic outlook. This may prompt the RBA to resume its campaign... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Does sterling have further to fall? The possibility of the UK leaving the EU appears to have had a substantial effect on the value of sterling against the US dollar. Indeed, we think cable would have stayed close to $1.50 had fears of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt devaluation: short-term pain, long-term gain? We think the latest moves by the Central Bank of Egypt suggest that a long-awaited devaluation of the pound may be just around the corner. This will inevitably involve some short-term pain, but over a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 15) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could savings on EU contributions boost the economy? One of the advantages of a vote to leave the EU would be the savings the UK could potentially make on its EU contributions. This money could in theory be used to give a boost to the economy, but there... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets mixed, Indonesia top performer After a rocky start to the year, Asian markets have settled down over the last month as investors have pushed back their expectations for the next rate hike in the US and oil prices stabilised. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s fall is nothing to fear Brexit unsurprisingly dominated the news again last week, especially its continued downward impact on sterling. As the referendum nears, we expect to see further falls in the pound. However, this... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines presidential election: runners and riders Political campaigning in the Philippines ahead of presidential elections due on 9 th May is now well underway. Grace Poe, an independent candidate and adopted daughter of Fernando Poe, a defeated... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing the currency war? While it is a bit dramatic to suggest that a global currency war is underway, the falls in interest rate expectations in overseas markets relative to those at home explains why the Australian dollar... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Is the pain over for EM currencies? Emerging markets (EM) currencies have enjoyed a renaissance in the past month and, although bumps are likely along the way, we suspect that many will appreciate further against the US dollar over the... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers step in to defend currencies Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia this month responded to the sharp falls in their currencies by hiking interest rates and stepping up intervention in foreign exchange markets. These moves appear to... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to fall further – but that’s not necessarily a bad thing Sterling remains the main casualty of Brexit uncertainty and we expect the pound to fall further as the referendum nears. However, this should not be viewed as an entirely negative development, as the... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policymakers unfazed by rupee slide The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in 2016 to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike three years ago, there is little reason for policymakers to panic. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook MPC unlikely to wait as long as markets think We think that recent fears about a global slowdown, and hence the reaction in financial markets, have been overdone. In fact, we expect global growth to accelerate this year and the prices of most... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
