Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation fears fade in the Gulf, Tunisia’s dinar falls Fears that low oil prices would force the Gulf countries to devalue their currencies have continued to fade over the past month. However, one country in the region where the authorities have loosened... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi may be approaching a turning point Analysts are convinced that the renminbi can only go one way – down against the dollar. But a return to appreciation is looking increasingly plausible. 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The Capital Markets Analyst Q2 2017 - As good as it gets for US assets? We think that the best days are over for assets in the US, in both absolute and relative terms. For example, we expect bond yields to rise further there than in other developed economies over the next... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy drives divergence in bond yields Moves in Latin America’s currency and equity markets this month have been relatively small but the divergent paths of government bond yields have been more eye-catching. While short-term local... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets give snap election the thumbs up The positive response of the pound to the surprise announcement of a snap General Election suggests that a larger Conservative majority, and stability in Government over the Brexit implementation... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the pound set for a pre-Brexit rally? The jump in sterling after Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap general election has posed the question of whether the pound might defy expectations and rise further as Brexit approaches... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee surges to 20-month high The rally in the Indian rupee since the start of 2017 has continued in recent weeks, driving the currency to its highest rate against the US dollar in almost two years. While we doubt that the rally... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling welcomes May’s election call The Prime Minister’s call for a snap General Election saw the pound surge higher despite expectations for future interest rates remaining more or less unchanged, having fallen over the preceding month... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus “Overvalued” Swiss franc may rise further While conventional metrics give some support to the Swiss National Bank’s view that the franc is “significantly overvalued”, the evidence from the economy implies that it is not. What’s more, we think... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price expectations too weak to reach 2% inflation The labour market continues to tighten and firms are reporting the most severe capacity shortages in years. Underlying inflation is therefore set to recover after approaching zero at the start of this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: export-driven recovery looking good…for now Brazilian export growth looks set to rebound this year as the impact of last year’s drought on agricultural shipments fades. This should help to finally pull the economy out of recession. That being... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Mar.) China’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly stable last month, suggesting that the recent easing of capital outflows has allowed the People’s Bank to step back from FX intervention. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CZK moves to managed float, further appreciation likely Despite what looks like heavy FX intervention by the Czech National Bank upon the exit from the koruna ceiling policy earlier today, comments from Governor Rusnok suggest that the Bank will tolerate... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bonds and currencies We have revised some of our forecasts for developed market government bonds and exchange rates to take account of current market levels and our latest thinking on monetary policy. We now project a... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland Market movements across the Nordic and Swiss economies were fairly limited in March. The main exceptions were in the currency market, with both the Norwegian krone and Icelandic króna recording sharp... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currencies and equities record further gains Asian currencies have gained ground against the US dollar over the past month as investors have pushed back their expectations on the number of interest rate rises in the US this year. Most Asian... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
